I drove away from the Citgo in Stratford this morning $102.48 lighter. That is a record for the Ram 1500. The Klutch card pings my phone the moment the pump locks, so I knew the number before I had pulled out of the parking lot.
The single fillup was striking enough on its own. But every fillup since mid-November was sitting in the same transaction history, so I exported them.
What it looks like at one pump
Same truck, same rotation of three or four stations within five miles from home:
| Date | Station | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | Maui Inc | $60.01 |
| Nov 15 | Citgo | $67.05 |
| Dec 3 | ExxonMobil | $65.00 |
| Jan 2 | Maui Inc | $48.91 |
| Jan 17 | Citgo | $57.33 |
| Feb 21 | Cumberland Farms | $46.23 |
| Mar 14 | Citgo | $62.77 |
| Apr 4 | ExxonMobil | $96.70 |
| Apr 25 | Citgo | $102.48 |
Seven fillups between early November and mid-March stayed in a $46-to-$67 band. The two April fillups are 50 to 70 percent above that band.
What’s happening nationally
AAA pegged the U.S. retail average at $4.086 per gallon today, and Connecticut’s state average at $4.093. The retail average crossed $4 on April 16 — first time since August 2022. New York Harbor RBOB gasoline futures broke $3.40 — a four-year high — and crude has traded above $100 a barrel since early April.
The cause is not a refinery fire or a hurricane. It is the Strait of Hormuz, which has been functionally closed since the United States and Israel opened an air war on Iran on February 28. Iran began intercepting tankers in the strait. The U.S. imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13. In the past forty-eight hours the standoff has hardened: an Iranian gunboat opened fire on a container ship’s bridge, Iran has claimed the seizure of two cargo vessels, and the President said Tuesday that U.S. forces would “shoot and kill” any Iranian crew caught laying mines in the strait.
About a fifth of the world’s oil moves through Hormuz on a normal day. The market priced that risk well before my truck did.
What summer looks like
The EIA’s most recent retail forecast — written in March, when crude was still in the low $90s — has the full-year 2026 average at $3.70. That assumes the strait reopens. Right now it does not look like the strait reopens. Summer demand normally adds 25 to 40 cents per gallon between Memorial Day and the Fourth of July, which is the seasonal driver before any war premium.
Refineries are also still finishing the spring switchover from winter to summer reformulated blend, which tightens supply for a few weeks every year. This year that switchover is colliding with a global crude shortage for the first time since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
I do not have a confident number for July. I have a confident direction.
What I’m doing about it
Not much, honestly. Right now I just pay it and go on with life. It is one more hit to my wallet, and that is before higher energy prices have finished working their way through the supply chain. On-highway diesel — the fuel under every tractor-trailer that delivers to a store — averaged $5.40 a gallon last week, up from $3.53 a year ago. That increase has not finished landing on store shelves yet.
The point of the chart is not a political argument. It is translating a foreign policy decision into a number on a receipt. November through March, my fillups averaged $58. The last two averaged $99.59. That is an extra $41 every time the tank goes empty — roughly $60 a month on my driving pattern. About the cost of my home internet.
If the strait reopens tomorrow, the futures market will reprice in hours and the pump will follow in days. If it does not, the chart’s last two bars are not a spike. They are the floor.