The RAM Shortage Is Spreading Beyond PCs

Note: This post was written by Claude Opus 4.5. The following is a synthesis of reporting from major technology publications and industry analysts.

Two weeks ago, we covered how AI data centers had driven RAM prices up 171%, with OpenAI’s Stargate project alone consuming 40% of global DRAM output. The situation has gotten worse.

70 Percent

The latest industry reports now project that data centers will consume 70 percent of all memory chips produced worldwide in 2026. Not 40 percent for one project—70 percent for the sector as a whole.

The Wall Street Journal describes a shortage that’s “all but guaranteed to hit the automotive sector, TVs, and consumer electronics,” comparing it to the production delays experienced during Covid. The publication calls it an event “nobody has fond memories of.”

Even legacy chips aren’t safe. Cars and most consumer electronics use older memory types, but manufacturers have downsized or discontinued production of these chips entirely. The margins aren’t worth it when AI customers are paying premium prices for every available wafer.

“The Craziest Time Ever”

The quotes from industry insiders have shifted from cautious to alarmed.

Micron’s Executive Vice President Manish Bhatia told CNBC the shortage is “unprecedented” and confirmed the company is sold out for 2026. SK Hynix is in the same position. When asked about supply constraints, Bhatia said Micron can only meet two-thirds of medium-term memory requirements for some customers.

TrendForce analyst Avril Wu, who has tracked the memory sector for almost 20 years, put it bluntly: “This time really is different. It really is the craziest time ever.”

Counterpoint Research’s MS Hwang offered practical advice for anyone trying to secure memory allocation: “You gotta buy a plane ticket and get that allocation from manufacturers right now.” Manufacturing capacity for 2028 is already being sold.

The Price Escalation Continues

Samsung and SK Hynix have reportedly pitched Q1 2026 server DRAM prices 60-70% higher than Q4 2025—and that’s on top of the 50% increases already seen in 2025. Combined, that could nearly double prices by mid-2026.

Both Korean manufacturers are now rejecting long-term agreements of two to three years, preferring quarterly contracts that let them capture price increases as they come. It’s a seller’s market, and they know it.

TrendForce projects conventional DRAM contract prices will rise 55-60% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. Client SSD prices are expected to jump at least 40%.

Beyond Computers

The spillover effects are what make this shortage different from previous cycles.

IDC calls the current situation a “permanent reallocation” of supplier capacity toward AI data centers. Analysts now estimate RAM could constitute 10% of the price of most consumer electronics and up to 30% of the bill of materials for smartphones.

IDC has revised its 2026 forecasts to show a 5% dip in smartphone sales and up to 9% contraction in PC shipments—numbers that “may be altered further in just a few months’ time.”

Japanese PC shops have begun limiting SSD, HDD, and RAM purchases to prevent hoarding. Hardware enthusiasts are finding workarounds: one modder recently documented saving $130 by building 32GB DDR5 desktop DIMMs from scavenged laptop memory.

What to Do About It

If you’re a business with a PC refresh cycle planned for 2026 or 2027, consider accelerating it. Prices are rising quarterly, and locking in hardware costs now will likely save money compared to waiting. Budget for 15-20% higher costs than last cycle regardless.

The old advice—buy the base configuration and upgrade RAM yourself later with cheaper aftermarket memory—may no longer work. Micron is exiting the Crucial consumer brand entirely by February 2026, leaving Samsung and SK Hynix as the only major suppliers feeding the retail channel. Third-party brands like Corsair, G.Skill, and Kingston don’t manufacture their own chips; they buy from these suppliers and repackage. With one major source gone and the other two prioritizing enterprise customers, aftermarket availability is becoming unpredictable. Some retailers are already rationing purchases. If you need specific memory configurations, buy them now while you can get them.

For consumers, the same logic applies: sooner is better than later. Watch for shrinkflation, where the 2026 model at the same price point ships with less RAM than its predecessor.

And for anyone who can extend the life of current hardware through 2027, that may be the most cost-effective option of all.

When Does It End?

The original timeline—relief by late 2027—now looks optimistic. With 2028 manufacturing capacity already being sold, the structural shortage could persist longer than anyone anticipated.

New fabs from Micron in Idaho and New York won’t reach meaningful production until 2027 and 2028 respectively. SK Hynix is spending $13 billion on what will be the world’s largest HBM assembly plant, but that capacity is destined for AI customers, not consumer devices.

The window is closing. Plan accordingly.