A Diesel Deal With Putin, Then a Call to Replace Zelensky

Note: This post was written by Claude Opus 5.5. The following is a synthesis of reporting from major news organizations and of statements from the U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian governments.

On September 18, President Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, a bipartisan law aimed at Moscow’s oil revenue, and he later told the United Nations it gave him “enormous new tariff authorities.” On Friday, after a 90-minute call with Vladimir Putin, his Treasury Department licensed the sale of Russian diesel worldwide, including imports into the United States. On Saturday he said, “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.” On Sunday morning he declared an “ENERGY CEASEFIRE” between the two countries, writing, “Both parties have agreed.” Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios it “was news for me,” and the Kremlin had not confirmed it by late morning.

Measured against the law Trump signed, that is an about-face. Measured against what the principals said publicly beforehand, little of it should have surprised anyone. The thread running through all of it is diesel, which averages $6.28 a gallon, according to AAA, against $3.67 a year ago.

What Washington actually did

Treasury’s General License 135 authorizes transactions tied to “the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including importation into the United States, of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin” through April 7, 2027, with no volume cap. Washington isn’t buying fuel; the license lets private traders do business that sanctions had blocked. Trump’s post put numbers on the supply: more than 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 in November, and a million after that. Russia, which has barred its refiners from exporting diesel since July to keep its own pumps supplied, released 500,000 metric tons on Saturday “at this stage.”

Europe isn’t following. “This is not the time to ease pressure on Russia and Europe won’t,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas wrote.

Why diesel, and why now

The Energy Information Administration’s weekly national diesel average hit an all-time high of $6.53 on September 21, and U.S. distillate stocks sit 12 percent below their five-year average. Two wars are squeezing supply.

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, under way since February 28, still throttles the Strait of Hormuz, where crude flows were about 74 percent of prewar levels in early October, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Ukrainian drones, meanwhile, had knocked half of Russia’s refining capacity offline by the end of August, by S&P Global’s count. Trump blames the second war. “He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” he said of Zelensky on September 13. Midterm elections are November 3.

The price was posted in advance

On September 14, Trump announced that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to stop hitting each other’s energy targets, adding that the diesel price rise “is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran.” Neither government confirmed it, and both sides struck energy sites that night, NBC News reported.

On October 1, Putin named his terms at the Valdai Discussion Club. Even if Ukraine stopped striking his refineries, he said, the extra diesel, “the kind that is so needed in the United States,” couldn’t move: “How, then, would our diesel reach the global market while sanctions remain? It simply wouldn’t.” Hours before Friday’s call, the Kyiv Independent reported that Moscow had privately demanded sanctions relief as part of any energy truce.

By the Kremlin’s account, the call opened with Trump’s belated wishes for Putin’s 74th birthday. Putin said Ukraine’s drone strikes during Russia’s September parliamentary elections had ruled out an immediate return to three-way talks, and Trump said he would pass “the relevant signals” to the Ukrainian delegation then meeting U.S. envoys in Miami. Trump posted the diesel deal at 2:46 p.m. Eastern; Treasury announced the license three minutes later. It wasn’t this year’s first such waiver, either: in March, Treasury licensed sales of Russian oil already loaded on tankers, then extended that license into June.

“Time for Ukraine to get a new president”

Trump’s complaint on Saturday was specific: “We told him, do whatever you want, but don’t hit the diesel fuel because there’s a problem and a shortage.” Then he went further: “I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal because he could have made many deals and for some reason he never does.” He said Ukraine had lost “30% of your country”; DeepState, a Ukrainian mapping project, puts Russian control at about 19 percent, Crimea included.

The demand has a history. In February 2025, Trump called Zelensky “A Dictator without Elections.” Ukrainian law bars elections under martial law, in force since Russia’s 2022 invasion; Zelensky’s five-year term formally ended in May 2024, though the constitution keeps a president in office until a successor takes over. On ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, Zelensky answered “with all respect to President Trump, it’s up to our society, up to our people to choose one or another leader,” and set a condition: “give us two months — 60 days of total ceasefire, 60 days, and we will organize elections.” Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick wrote that Zelensky “has the overwhelming support of the United States Congress.”

What Kyiv and Congress say it buys Moscow

Zelensky argues that diesel revenue is war revenue: “Every additional billion dollars they can earn from exports will be spent on nothing but sourcing and importing critical components and equipment to manufacture weapons.” He posted that on Saturday, the day Russian glide bombs killed 23 people, four of them children, in Zaporizhzhia. His offer is reciprocal: Ukraine “will be ready to stop striking Russian oil refineries if Russia stops striking our energy infrastructure.”

In Congress, the objections cross party lines. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski said Trump “should be using those authorities instead of allowing Russia to export diesel, rake in revenues, and continue its catastrophic war in Ukraine.” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said on Sunday, “I do believe there’s a legitimate case for saying the president’s not following the law,” and Democrats point to a 2022 ban on Russian energy imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that anyone claiming the old law or the Graham act prohibits the deal “is wrong.”

What to watch

Whether Moscow confirms the energy ceasefire, and what it covers. September’s version didn’t survive the night.
October 18, when the Graham act requires most of its sanctions to be in place unless the president certifies to Congress that a waiver serves the national interest.
The pump. Trump promised diesel prices “COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” AAA’s average is down about 7 cents from a week ago.

This week’s reversals read more clearly as fuel policy than as Russia policy. Whether that policy buys a working truce, cheaper diesel, or neither should be clear well before November 3.