Geopolitics
A Diesel Deal With Putin, Then a Call to Replace Zelensky
After a Trump-Putin call, Treasury licensed Russian diesel sales. A day later Trump said Ukraine needs a new president. Then he declared an energy truce.
Geopolitics
Geopolitics
Trump and Xi Built an AI Hotline. Nobody Defined 'Incident.'
The Trump-Xi summit produced a Super Intelligence dialogue and an AI incident hotline — one sentence, no date, and no definition of 'incident.'
AI
Trump Renames AI at the UN. A Day Later, Its Builders Ask for Rules.
Trump told the UN that AI is now 'super intelligence' and rejected a 'globalist scheme' to control it. A day later, Altman and Amodei asked for rules.
Geopolitics
65 Billion Barrels on Paper: The U.S.-Venezuela Oil Deal
Trump announced majority U.S. control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. The structure is undisclosed, and the pump won't notice for years.
Geopolitics
Three Tankers, 300 Targets: The Hormuz Ceasefire Comes Apart
The June 17 memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil back to pre-war prices. Three weeks later the strait is declared closed again, CENTCOM has struck more than 300 targets in three nights, and Brent heads into Monday with a weekend of escalation still unpriced.
Technology
One Company Makes the Machine Behind Every Advanced Chip
Every leading-edge chip — including the Nvidia processors announced this week — is printed by one machine, made by one company in the Netherlands. ASML's EUV monopoly is the most important, and most fragile, link in the tech economy.
Geopolitics
Six Weeks of a Frayed Ceasefire, the Pump Reads $112.85
Six weeks into a ceasefire both sides have repeatedly violated, with U.S. self-defense strikes on Iranian launch sites as recently as May 7. Operation Epic Fury was declared concluded May 5. The Strait of Hormuz is still passing nine ships a day instead of 135, and U.S. retail gasoline keeps climbing — with a Wall Street legend warning of a tipping point and motor oil joining jet fuel on the shortage list.
Geopolitics
Europe's Jet Fuel Crisis Is Real. So Are the US Ripples.
The IEA says Europe has maybe six weeks of jet fuel left. The warning checks out — and the same forces are already lifting US airfares, diesel, and LNG prices.
Geopolitics
Trump Threatened Iran's 'Civilization.' Then Agreed to a Ceasefire.
President Trump spent Easter weekend threatening to destroy Iran's infrastructure, then warned Tuesday morning that 'a whole civilization will die tonight.' The world spent 10 hours wondering what he meant. By evening, he announced a ceasefire. By morning, it was already fraying.
Geopolitics
Jamie Dimon Backs the Iran War, Warns of an Inflation Spiral
In his annual shareholder letter, JPMorgan's CEO backs the war in Iran while warning that oil shocks and sticky inflation could tip the U.S. into a recession reminiscent of 1974 or 1982.